AHA PREVENT Equations (10- and 30-year CVD risk)
What is the 10- and 30-year risk of total CVD, ASCVD and heart failure in adults without CVD?
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About this tool
The 2023 AHA sex-specific, race-free equations estimating total cardiovascular disease, ASCVD and heart failure risk, including kidney function (eGFR) and BMI (base model).
Intended use
Primary prevention in adults aged 30–79 without known cardiovascular disease.
Outcome
Total CVD (ASCVD + heart failure), ASCVD, heart failure
Time horizon
10 and 30 years
Derivation population
More than 3 million US adults aged 30–79 from 25 datasets (derivation and validation).
Do not use in
Established CVD; ages outside 30–79 (30-year estimates intended for ages 30–59).
Limitations
- No guideline-endorsed treatment thresholds yet; PCE-based categories should not be applied directly.
- HumanPulse implements the base model; UACR, HbA1c and social deprivation add-ons are not included.
- Derived in US populations; transportability elsewhere is less studied.
Clinical problems
Evidence
Evidence level
Emerging evidence
Large derivation and validation sample with good discrimination and calibration reported, but recent and not yet the basis of treatment thresholds in guidelines. Methodology
Guideline status
Developed by the AHA as part of the cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) health initiative.
Geographic applicability
United States.
Demographic applicability
Race-free; sex-specific equations.
Validation studies
US adults aged 30–79
Derivation in 3,281,919 adults (1,839,828 female, 1,442,091 male) from 25 datasets; validated internally and externally.
References
- Original publicationKhan SS, Matsushita K, Sang Y, et al. Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations. Circulation 2024;149:430-449. Find on PubMed (opens in a new tab)
Version history
| Version | Formula | Effective | Reviewer | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1.0.0 | Khan 2024 base model (10- and 30-year), coefficients from the supplementary Excel file | 2026-10-03 | — | Initial implementation with reference test vectors. |
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Clinical decision support only. Interpret results in the context of the individual patient and current guidance; HumanPulse does not replace professional medical judgment.